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See AllREPLENISH YOUR PORTFOLIO IN 2024 GET MY TOP 3 PICKS–RISK-FREE!
I have a (very positive!) update on Replenish Nutrients, symbol ERTH-CSE / VVIVF-OTC). Their fertilizer business will continue to grow in 2024, but I think CASH FLOW has a BIG increase.
They have a unique, proprietary recipe for fertilizer that is winning business—revenues have gone up steadily.
Now, in 2023 revenue will be LOWER—as fertilizer prices have come down. BUT…reduced costs (all the input costs for their fertilizer have come down the same amount) has meant they are now much closer to break-even than ever before.
I think there is a very good chance they generate positive cash flow in Q1 24, but almost certainly in Q2. I’ll explain why, below.
ERTH’s fertilizer is VERY different than your regular Loew’s or Canadian Tire marketed products.
- It has no salt—this is HUGE–the chloride in traditional fertilizers is actually BAD for the soil
- It has micro-organisms from compost (think mushrooms) that replenish and strengthen soil—that regular salt-based (chloride) fertilizers deplete
- So it actually feeds the soil, not the plant
- Has a small fraction of the energy intensity required to make it vs. regular fertilizer
ERTH has been producing their special recipe in a “blended” fertilizer, which looks & feels like regular sand. The gross margin on this is low—single digits.
In early 2024, they will start making their recipe in larger pellets (still small but bigger than sand), which can be used by traditional farm equipment to dispense it.
This has 20% + margins.
Right now, ERTH is only producing fertilizer at one facility in Beiseker Alberta—but improvements there are allowing them to increase production in 2024. So I am expecting higher production rates of a higher margin product—making a BIG impact on cash flow.
ERTH has already announced a CAD$7 million grant from the Alberta government to build a 2nd, much larger facility in the province.
Management is negotiating a debt package for the remainder of the cost, as raising equity at 8 cents is not feasible.
Management is hoping to have that plant—in Diebolt Alberta—producing by YE 24, or early Q1 25. That will more than double production, and more than double cash flow. The company does not need to raise any equity in foreseeable future.
I am only expecting $5 million in cash flow for 2024, and maybe $8-$10 million in 2025; that’s not huge. But it is growth, and it is a product that the world needs.
I own over 1 million shares of the company.
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